A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
